ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Bayesian probability

Bayesian probability is a way of predicting what will happen in the future by considering all of the information that you have right now. It's like making a guess based on what you already know.

For example, let's say you wanted to know if it was going to rain tomorrow. You could use Bayesian Probability to make your guess. You'd look at the weather report today and see if it's likely to rain. Then you'd look at what the weather was like yesterday and the day before that. You'd look at all the information you have about the weather to make an educated guess about what the weather will be like tomorrow. That's Bayesian Probability - making a guess based on all the information that you have.