ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Fixed-effect Poisson model

Imagine you're counting the number of candies you eat every day for a month. Sometimes you eat more, sometimes you eat less. But what if you want to know how many candies you usually eat every day? That's where the fixed-effect Poisson model comes in.

First, we need to understand what a Poisson distribution is. It's a way to describe how many times an event happens in a certain amount of time, like counting how many cars pass by in an hour on a busy road. With the Poisson distribution, we can figure out how likely it is to see a certain number of events in a given amount of time.

Now let's add the "fixed-effect" part. This means we want to take into account certain factors that might affect the number of candies you eat. For example, maybe on weekends you eat more because you have more free time, or maybe when you're stressed you eat less. We want to account for these factors so we can get a better idea of your typical candy-eating behavior.

To do this, we use a fixed-effect Poisson model. We start with the Poisson distribution and add in some extra information about those factors that might affect candy eating. We look at the specific factors and how they relate to the number of candies eaten. Then we use this information to make a prediction about how many candies you are likely to eat on any given day.

The end result is a model that can help us understand your candy-eating behavior better. It takes into account the different factors that might affect how many candies you eat and helps us predict how many you're likely to eat on any given day.