ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Absorbing Markov chain

Okay kiddo, so imagine you're playing a game where you move around a board with different spaces. Each space on the board has a number assigned to it that tells you the probability of moving to another space on your next turn.

Now, in an absorbing Markov chain, there are some spaces on the board that are special. These spaces are called "absorbing" because once you land on them, you can't move to any other space on the board. You're stuck there!

The other spaces on the board are "non-absorbing" because you can still move to other spaces even if you land on them.

The goal of the game is to keep moving around the board until you land on one of the absorbing spaces. Once you land on an absorbing space, the game is over and you can't keep playing anymore.

Now, the interesting thing about an absorbing Markov chain is that you can use math to figure out the probability of landing on each absorbing space. This can be really useful in all sorts of real-life situations, like predicting how long it will take for a customer to buy something from your store, or how long it will take for a virus to disappear from a population.

So, an absorbing Markov chain is just a fancy way of describing a game where some spaces are more special than others, and you can use math to figure out how likely you are to land on those special spaces. Cool, huh?