Condorcet's jury theorem
Imagine you and your friends are trying to decide what game to play at recess. One friend wants to play tag, another wants to play kickball, and you want to play red light, green light. You need to come to a decision, but how do you decide what game to play?
This is where Condorcet's jury theorem comes in. It says that if a group of people is trying to make a decision, the more people there are in the group, the more likely they are to make the correct decision.
Let's use the recess game example again. Say you have a group of five friends trying to decide what game to play: two want to play tag, two want to play kickball, and one wants to play red light, green light. How do you decide what game to play?
According to Condorcet's jury theorem, if you take a vote, the majority choice is likely to be the best decision. In this case, you would play tag or kickball because they both have two votes.
But what if you have a group of 20 friends trying to decide? The chance of a wrong decision becomes even smaller because there are more people involved in the vote.
Overall, Condorcet's jury theorem suggests that when lots of people come together to make a decision, they are more likely to make a correct decision than if just one person were making that decision.
This is where Condorcet's jury theorem comes in. It says that if a group of people is trying to make a decision, the more people there are in the group, the more likely they are to make the correct decision.
Let's use the recess game example again. Say you have a group of five friends trying to decide what game to play: two want to play tag, two want to play kickball, and one wants to play red light, green light. How do you decide what game to play?
According to Condorcet's jury theorem, if you take a vote, the majority choice is likely to be the best decision. In this case, you would play tag or kickball because they both have two votes.
But what if you have a group of 20 friends trying to decide? The chance of a wrong decision becomes even smaller because there are more people involved in the vote.
Overall, Condorcet's jury theorem suggests that when lots of people come together to make a decision, they are more likely to make a correct decision than if just one person were making that decision.