ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Cox Models

Okay, let's imagine you have a bunch of friends who are all different ages. You want to figure out which of your friends is more likely to get sick or pass away, and you know that age might have something to do with it.

So you start by making a list of everyone's age, and then you keep track of who gets sick or passes away over time. You notice that the older your friends get, the more likely they are to get sick or pass away.

But wait! You also notice that some of your friends might have other things going on that could affect their chances of getting sick or passing away. For example, some might smoke or drink heavily, while others might exercise regularly and eat healthy foods.

So you think, "Hmm, I need a way to take into account not just age, but also other things that could affect my friends' health outcomes." That's where cox models come in.

A cox model is like a special tool that can help you figure out which factors (like age, smoking, exercise habits, etc.) are most important when it comes to predicting health outcomes. It looks at all of the data you've collected on your friends and looks for patterns.

For example, the cox model might tell you that age is the biggest predictor of health outcomes, but smoking and lack of exercise also play a role. By using a cox model, you can get a more accurate picture of who might be at risk of getting sick or passing away, and you can take steps to help your friends stay healthy.