ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Cyclical theory (United States history)

Imagine a big wheel that spins around and around, like a Ferris wheel at the carnival. Now imagine that this wheel represents the history of the United States. Sometimes, the wheel is at the top, and things are great - people are happy, the economy is booming, and everything seems to be going well. But eventually, the wheel starts to spin downward, and things start to get worse. People lose their jobs, the economy slows down, and there may be wars or other problems.

This pattern of things going well and then going badly, and then going well again, is what we call the cyclical theory. It suggests that history is sort of like a pattern that keeps repeating itself in cycles, like the seasons. Just as winter always comes after fall, and spring always follows winter, there are certain events and trends that we can expect to happen in history over and over again.

One important aspect of the cyclical theory is the idea that these cycles are largely driven by economics. For example, if there are a lot of good jobs and people are making money, then there tends to be more stability and fewer conflicts. But if people are struggling and the economy is in a downturn, then we might see more unrest and social conflict.

Another way to think of the cyclical theory is like a pendulum that swings back and forth. Sometimes, the pendulum is on one extreme, and sometimes it swings to the other extreme. In the same way, history tends to swing back and forth between different political, economic, and social systems, as one system becomes dominant and then starts to decline.

Overall, the cyclical theory helps us to understand the way that history moves in patterns, with certain events, trends, and cycles repeating themselves over and over again. By studying these patterns, we can begin to predict what might happen in the future, and we can learn from the past in order to build a better future for ourselves and our society.