ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Discrete Weibull distribution

Imagine you have a bunch of marbles in a jar, and you want to know how likely it is that a certain color of marble will be picked. A Discrete Weibull Distribution is a way to calculate the probability of how many times you will have to reach into the jar before you pick a certain color of marble.

Let's say you have a jar with 50 marbles, 10 of them are red and 40 of them are blue. You want to know how many times you will have to reach into the jar before you pick a red marble. A Discrete Weibull Distribution can give you the probability of this happening.

The Weibull Distribution works by calculating how the probability of picking a red marble changes as you reach into the jar more and more times. This is important because, as you take marbles out of the jar, the probability of picking a red marble changes, it becomes harder to pick a red marble the more marbles you take out.

Once you know how the probability changes with each pick, the Discrete Weibull Distribution will then give you the probability of picking a red marble after a certain amount of picks.

So, in short, a Discrete Weibull Distribution is a way to calculate the probability of how many times you will have to do something before you get the outcome you're looking for.