Empirical Bayes
Okay kiddo, let me tell you about empirical bayes!
It's like trying to guess how many marbles are in a jar. You know that some jars have more marbles than others, and you know that there's probably some kind of pattern to how many marbles are in a jar based on how big the jar is.
Empirical bayes is a way of making a really good guess about how many marbles are in a jar based on what you've seen in other jars.
First, you look at a bunch of jars and count how many marbles are in each one. Then you make a graph showing how many jars there are with different numbers of marbles. You might see that most jars have around 20 marbles, but there are some with only 10 and some with 30 or 40. This graph is called a histogram.
Next, you use the histogram to make a guess about how many marbles are in a jar you haven't seen yet. If you're looking at a really big jar, your guess will be bigger than if you're looking at a small jar, but you'll also take into account how many marbles usually show up in jars of that same size.
Empirical bayes is a smart way to make a guess about something even if you don't have all the information you need. By looking at what you do know, you can come up with a pretty good estimate!
It's like trying to guess how many marbles are in a jar. You know that some jars have more marbles than others, and you know that there's probably some kind of pattern to how many marbles are in a jar based on how big the jar is.
Empirical bayes is a way of making a really good guess about how many marbles are in a jar based on what you've seen in other jars.
First, you look at a bunch of jars and count how many marbles are in each one. Then you make a graph showing how many jars there are with different numbers of marbles. You might see that most jars have around 20 marbles, but there are some with only 10 and some with 30 or 40. This graph is called a histogram.
Next, you use the histogram to make a guess about how many marbles are in a jar you haven't seen yet. If you're looking at a really big jar, your guess will be bigger than if you're looking at a small jar, but you'll also take into account how many marbles usually show up in jars of that same size.
Empirical bayes is a smart way to make a guess about something even if you don't have all the information you need. By looking at what you do know, you can come up with a pretty good estimate!