ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Exponential distribution

Imagine you're playing a game of darts, and you're trying to hit a bullseye. You have a certain amount of time to throw as many darts as you can, and you want to know how likely it is that you'll hit the bullseye.

The exponential distribution is a way to describe the chances of something happening over a certain amount of time. In our example, the amount of time is the length of the game or how many darts you throw.

The exponential distribution assumes that events happen randomly, and the time between events is constant. For example, if you're throwing darts at a board, you might throw a dart every 10 seconds, no matter whether you hit or miss the bullseye.

The probability of you hitting the bullseye on your first throw is low, but it's not impossible. As you continue to throw more darts, your chances of hitting the bullseye increase, but they never reach 100%. Even after throwing a hundred darts, you still might not hit the bullseye.

The exponential distribution helps us describe this process by telling us the probability of something happening at a certain time. In our example, the probability of hitting the bullseye after 10 throws might be 10%, while the probability of hitting the bullseye after 100 throws might be 70%.

Overall, the exponential distribution is a way to describe the probability of something happening over time when the events happen randomly and independently.