Financial risk modeling is like playing a game of pretend where we try to guess what might happen to our money in the future. We use lots of information and numbers to make our guesses, which are called estimates.
Imagine you have a piggy bank with $10 in it. You want to buy a toy that costs $5 next week, but you're not sure if you'll have enough money then. You think about different things that might happen that could affect how much money you have, like losing some coins or getting some extra money from your parents.
In the same way, financial risk modeling is like thinking about all the things that could happen to your money, but on a much bigger scale. People who work in finance use math and computer programs to help them make guesses about things like how much a company's stock might go up or down, or how likely it is that someone will pay back a loan on time.
They look at lots of different things that might affect how the money will behave, like the company's past performance or economic trends in the global market. Just like when you thought about losing coins or getting extra money from your parents, they take into account lots of different possibilities and make their best estimate of what might happen.
Using financial risk modeling helps people make decisions about how to invest their money, or how to manage risk in their business. It's like having a crystal ball to predict the future, but it's not always completely accurate - just like your guesses about your piggy bank might not always be right. But by having a good idea of what could happen, people can make smart choices and be better prepared for whatever the future holds.