ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

History of probability

Alright, kiddo, let's talk about probability and its history.

Probability is all about how likely something is to happen. It's kind of like guessing. For example, if you flip a coin, you have a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads or tails.

People have been talking about probability for a really, really long time. In fact, way back in ancient times, people used probability to predict things like the weather and the movements of the stars.

But it wasn't until later on, in the 17th century, that probability really started to become a formal thing. There were some really smart people, like Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, who were trying to solve a problem called the "problem of points".

The problem of points was basically all about gambling. They wanted to figure out how to divide up the winnings when you're playing a game with someone and you don't finish the game. They came up with this thing called probability theory, which is a way of figuring out how likely something is to happen.

Over time, people started using probability for all sorts of things. Scientists used it to study things like genetics and disease outbreaks, and people used it to make predictions about the future.

Nowadays, probability is used for all sorts of things, from predicting the weather to figuring out which candidate is most likely to win an election. It's a really useful tool, and it all started because some really smart people wanted to figure out how to divide up the winnings in a game of chance!