ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

James–Stein estimator

The James-Stein estimator is a way to make better guesses about something when you don’t have all the information you need. It helps you make better estimates about how many or how much of something there is.

Here’s an example of how it works. First, imagine you have three people who each have their own jar of candy. Each person guesses how much candy is in their jar, but they can’t see into the other jars. The James-Stein estimator helps you make an estimate that’s better than the guesses alone.

First, you take all the guesses and add them up. This is your starting point. Then, you look at the differences between each guess. For example, if one person guesses 10 pieces of candy, another guesses 8 pieces, and another guesses 12 pieces, you’ll have a difference of 2 pieces between each guess.

Next, you make a small adjustment to the total. You subtract the difference between each guess from the total. So in this example, the total for all three jars of candy would be 28 pieces (10+8+12=30; 30-2=28). This new total is your James-Stein estimator.

By using the James-Stein estimator, you were able to make a better guess about how much candy was in the three jars than you would have been able to make with the guesses alone.