ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Multivariate Pólya distribution

Imagine you have a box with different colored marbles inside. You want to know the chance, or probability, of getting a certain number of each color of marble when you take a certain number of them out of the box.

Now, imagine you have multiple boxes with different numbers of marbles of different colors in each box. You want to know the probability of getting a certain distribution of colors when you randomly pick marbles from each box.

This is where the multivariate pólya distribution comes in. It is a mathematical way to calculate the probability of getting a certain distribution of colors when you randomly pick marbles from multiple boxes.

The pólya distribution takes into account the number of boxes, the number of marbles in each box, and the different possible colors of marbles in each box. By using this distribution, you can calculate the probability of getting any combination of colors when you randomly pick marbles from each box.

So, if you have 3 boxes with 4 red marbles, 3 green marbles, and 5 blue marbles in the first box, 6 red marbles, 2 green marbles, and 4 blue marbles in the second box, and 2 red marbles, 5 green marbles, and 6 blue marbles in the third box, you can use the pólya distribution to calculate the probability of getting a certain distribution of red, green, and blue marbles when you randomly pick a total of 10 marbles from the boxes.

Overall, the multivariate pólya distribution is a powerful tool for calculating the probability of getting a certain distribution of colors when you randomly pick marbles from multiple boxes.