Price's model
Price's Model is a way to predict the likelihood of an event happening in the future, such as how likely it is to rain tomorrow or for a sports team to win a game. It was created by a man named George Price who was interested in understanding how things change over time.
Imagine you are playing a game with a friend outside and you want to know if it will rain later in the day. You both look up at the sky and see some clouds. Price's model tells us that based on the probability of rain in the past, the current weather conditions, and any other relevant information, we can make an estimate about the likelihood of it raining later.
To make this estimation, we use a series of mathematical equations that take into account these different factors. The model also helps us understand how new information - like a sudden change in the wind - might affect the probability of the event happening.
In the end, the model is useful because it helps us make better predictions about the future, even when we don't have all the information available. However, it's important to note that these predictions are never 100% accurate, as there are always external factors that can come into play.
Imagine you are playing a game with a friend outside and you want to know if it will rain later in the day. You both look up at the sky and see some clouds. Price's model tells us that based on the probability of rain in the past, the current weather conditions, and any other relevant information, we can make an estimate about the likelihood of it raining later.
To make this estimation, we use a series of mathematical equations that take into account these different factors. The model also helps us understand how new information - like a sudden change in the wind - might affect the probability of the event happening.
In the end, the model is useful because it helps us make better predictions about the future, even when we don't have all the information available. However, it's important to note that these predictions are never 100% accurate, as there are always external factors that can come into play.