Probabilistic causation

Probabilistic causation is like playing with blocks. Imagine you have a tower of blocks and you want to knock it down. You could try knocking it over by pushing it from different sides, but sometimes it might not fall down even if you push it really hard. That's because the blocks are not always going to fall in the same way. Sometimes they might stay in place, and sometimes they might fall over.

In the same way, when things happen in life, there are usually many different factors that can influence the outcome. Even if you do the same thing over and over again, you might get a different result depending on those factors. So, probabilistic causation helps us understand how likely it is that a certain factor will cause a certain result. It's like trying to predict which side of the block tower will fall down when you push it.

For example, let's say you are studying for a test. The amount of time you spend studying is one factor that can influence how well you do on the test. But, there are also other factors like how much you already know about the subject, how well the teacher explains the material, and how your memory works.

Probabilistic causation helps us understand how likely it is that spending more time studying will cause you to do better on the test. It's not a guarantee that you will do better if you study longer, but it does increase the likelihood that you will. Sort of like how pushing the block tower from a certain side increases the likelihood that it will fall in that direction.