ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The black swan is an idea that explains how something we never think will happen can suddenly happen and have a huge impact, like a black swan flying across the sky. When something unlikely happens, it has a huge impact. This can be good, like when an unexpected person wins a prize, or it can be bad, like when a big storm destroys someone's house. Even if something unlikely happens, it can still change the world.