ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

The problem of the speckled hen

The Problem of the Speckled Hen is a math problem that is used to help people understand probability. In the problem, a farmer has a henhouse with 10 hens in it. 8 of the hens have plain feathers and 2 of the hens have speckled feathers.

The farmer wants to know what is the probability that, if she chooses one hen at random, it will be a speckled hen.

To figure this out, we need to think about how many different ways the farmer could choose a hen. Since there are 10 hens in the henhouse, the farmer could choose any one of the 10 hens. When we do this kind of math, we use something called a fraction to show how many chances there are out of the total number of chances.

In this case, the fraction would be 2 out of 10. This means that there are two chances out of the total 10 that the farmer could choose a speckled hen. To figure out the probability (or how likely it is) that the farmer will choose a speckled hen, we need to turn this fraction into a percentage.

To do this, we count how many chances there are for the farmer to choose a speckled hen by counting the top number of the fraction (2). This is called the numerator. Then, we count how many total chances there are by counting the bottom number of the fraction (10). This is called the denominator. We then divide the numerator by the denominator, in this case 2 divided by 10, and then multiply our answer by 100 to turn it into a percentage.

So in our case, 2 divided by 10 is equal to 0.2. When we multiple this by 100, we get 20%. This means that there is a 20% chance that the farmer will choose a speckled hen if she chooses one at random.