Uncertainty analysis

Uncertainty analysis is like trying to figure out how sure you are about something. You know sometimes when you take a guess, you're really sure you're right, but sometimes you're not sure at all? Uncertainty analysis is like trying to measure that and see how much it affects things.

So imagine you're trying to guess how many jellybeans are in a jar. You might be really sure and guess 100, or you might not be very sure and guess 50. But no matter what you guess, there's going to be some uncertainty or doubt about whether you're right.

Uncertainty analysis helps figure out how much that doubt matters. It might be a big deal if you're trying to win a prize for guessing the number of jellybeans, but it might not matter as much if you're just doing it for fun.

Uncertainty analysis can help you figure out how to be more sure by looking at things like how the jellybeans are arranged in the jar and how big they are. And it can also help if you know how much of an impact it will have if you're not exactly right.

Overall, uncertainty analysis is like looking at the chances that you're right about something and trying to figure out how much it matters if you're not exactly right.