Think about going to school or work every day. You always take the same route to get there, but sometimes things happen that make you late or early. Commuting probability is like figuring out the likelihood that you will arrive at your destination at a certain time.
Let's say you leave your house at the same time every day, but sometimes you get stuck in traffic and other times you make all the green lights. Commuting probability helps you figure out how often each of those things will happen. For example, if there's a lot of traffic on your route during rush hour, the probability of getting stuck in traffic is higher. On the other hand, if you live in a small town with few cars on the road, your chances of getting stuck in traffic are lower.
There are lots of factors that can affect commuting probability, like weather, accidents, or construction. These are called variables. The probability of arriving at your destination on time depends on the combination of all the variables.
So, commuting probability is like predicting how likely it is that you'll arrive at your destination on time. It's important to know, because if you know the probability of getting stuck in traffic, for example, you can plan to leave earlier to give yourself enough time.