ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Dependent random choice

Okay kiddo, let me explain dependent random choice to you.

Imagine you have two bowls, one with 3 red balls and 2 blue balls and the other with 4 red balls and 1 blue ball.

Now, let’s say you want to pick a ball from each bowl without looking. The chance of picking a red ball from the first bowl is 3/5 (because there’s 3 red balls out of a total of 5 balls).

However, the second bowl also has red balls. So, the chance of picking a red ball from the second bowl also depends on what happened in the first bowl. If we picked a red ball from the first bowl, then the chance of picking another red ball from the second bowl is now 4/5 (because there are 4 red balls left out of a total of 5 balls). But, if we picked a blue ball from the first bowl, then the chance of picking a red ball from the second bowl is only 3/5 (because there are only 3 red balls left out of a total of 5 balls).

So, when the chance of something happening depends on what happened before, we call it a dependent random choice.