Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections
When grown-ups in the United States need to decide who to vote for to be the president, they sometimes ask a bunch of other grown-ups who they plan to vote for. They do this so they can make predictions and see who might win the election. This is called a "poll."
Grown-ups who ask the questions in the poll talk to people who they think might be likely to vote. They might talk to a small group of people or a big group of people. They ask them who they plan to vote for and write down the answers. They might also ask other questions about things like how old people are, where they live, and how they usually vote.
After they talk to lots of people, the grown-ups look at all the answers they wrote down and add them up. Then they use math to find out what percentage of people plan to vote for each person running for president.
They might also look at the answers to other questions they asked to see if certain groups of people are more likely to vote for one person than another. For example, they might find that a lot of young people are planning to vote for one candidate, but a lot of older people are planning to vote for the other candidate.
Historical polling means looking back at polls that were taken in the past. This helps us see how accurate the predictions were and how people's opinions might have changed over time. It's important to remember that polls aren't always perfect and sometimes they get things wrong. But they can help us understand how people are feeling and make predictions about what might happen in the future.
Grown-ups who ask the questions in the poll talk to people who they think might be likely to vote. They might talk to a small group of people or a big group of people. They ask them who they plan to vote for and write down the answers. They might also ask other questions about things like how old people are, where they live, and how they usually vote.
After they talk to lots of people, the grown-ups look at all the answers they wrote down and add them up. Then they use math to find out what percentage of people plan to vote for each person running for president.
They might also look at the answers to other questions they asked to see if certain groups of people are more likely to vote for one person than another. For example, they might find that a lot of young people are planning to vote for one candidate, but a lot of older people are planning to vote for the other candidate.
Historical polling means looking back at polls that were taken in the past. This helps us see how accurate the predictions were and how people's opinions might have changed over time. It's important to remember that polls aren't always perfect and sometimes they get things wrong. But they can help us understand how people are feeling and make predictions about what might happen in the future.