ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Keynesian beauty contest

So, imagine you and your friends are going to pick the prettiest person in a contest. But instead of just picking who you think is the prettiest, you have to guess who everyone else will pick as the prettiest.

This means you have to think about what other people are thinking, and not just what you think. It's like a big puzzle, where you have to figure out what other people will do, so you can do the right thing too.

In the same way, in economics there is a theory called the Keynesian Beauty Contest, where investors have to guess what other investors think about the future of a company or the economy. They have to try to predict what other people will do, so that they can make the right investment choices too.

It's like a game of guessing what other people will guess, and it can be very complicated! But if you can figure it out, you can be very successful in investing.