ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

McNamara fallacy

Have you ever heard someone say, "we can measure everything that can be counted, but not everything that counts?" That's kind of like what the McNamara Fallacy is all about. Imagine you have a piggy bank that you're trying to fill up with coins- let's say you're trying to save up enough money to buy a new toy. You count each coin as you put it in, and after a while, you have a pretty good idea of how much money you're going to have once the bank is full.

The McNamara Fallacy comes into play when people focus too much on the things that are easy to measure- like the number of coins in the piggy bank- and forget to think about the things that might be even more important, but are harder to measure- like how much you really want that toy, or how happy it will make you once you have it.

This Fallacy is named after a guy named Robert McNamara, who was the Secretary of Defense during the Vietnam War. He thought that victory in the war would come down to a simple matter of numbers- if they could count how many weapons and soldiers they had on each side, they could calculate the best strategies for winning the war. But they forgot to think about the fact that the Vietnamese were fighting for their homes, their families, and their way of life- things that can't really be measured or counted.

So, in short, the McNamara Fallacy is when people rely too much on numbers and measurements, and forget to think about the bigger picture. It's important to remember that not everything in life can be easily measured, and that sometimes the things that really matter are the things that can't be counted at all.