ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Moderate deviation principle

The moderate deviation principle is a fancy way of saying that something will usually be close to the average, but sometimes it may be a little bit farther away.

Let's imagine we have a group of friends who are really good at throwing a baseball. They can usually throw the ball pretty accurately and it will land close to a target. But every once in a while, one of them might throw the ball a little bit farther away from the target.

The moderate deviation principle tells us that most of the time, the throws will be close to the target, but sometimes they might be a little bit farther away. This is important because it helps us understand how likely it is for something to happen.

In math, we use this principle to study different kinds of probabilities. For example, if we roll a fair six-sided dice, most of the time we will get a number close to the average, which is 3.5. But sometimes we might get a number that is a little bit bigger or smaller. This principle helps us understand the chances of getting different numbers when we roll the dice.

So, to sum it up, the moderate deviation principle tells us that most of the time things will be close to the average, but sometimes they might be a little bit farther away. It helps us understand how likely different outcomes are when we study probabilities.