Neglect of probability

So imagine you have a big bag of Skittles (yum!). There are 5 colors of Skittles in the bag - red, orange, yellow, green, and purple. Now, let's say you take one Skittle out of the bag without looking. You want to guess what color it is.

If you don't know anything about probability, you might just guess any color you want - maybe you'll even guess purple because it's your favorite color. But if you know about probability, you might make a more educated guess.

Let's say there are 20 Skittles in the bag, and 4 of them are purple. That means the probability (or chance) of picking a purple Skittle is 4/20, or 1/5. So if you're trying to guess the color of the Skittle, you're more likely to be right if you guess red, orange, yellow, or green, because there are more of those colors in the bag.

Now, neglect of probability happens when people forget or ignore the probability of something happening. They might make a guess or a decision without considering how likely it is to happen. For example, imagine you're playing a game where you flip a coin. If it lands on heads, you win $10. If it lands on tails, you lose $5. If you neglect probability, you might think "Well, I need some money, so I'll play this game!" without realizing that the probability of winning is only 50%. That means you're just as likely to lose money as you are to win it.

Neglecting probability can lead to bad decisions, because you're not considering all the information you have, and you're not thinking about how likely something is to happen. It's like trying to guess the color of the Skittle without looking at how many of each color are in the bag - you might get lucky and guess right, but you're more likely to be wrong.