ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Possibility theory

Have you ever played a game of heads or tails? Yes? Great! So, you know that there are two outcomes: either the coin will land on heads or tails. Now, if we had to pick which side the coin would land on, we'd have two choices and each choice has an equal chance of happening - that means there is a 50/50 chance of either side coming up. This is an example of what we call possibility theory.

Possibility theory is a way to talk about how likely something might happen. We use possibility theory when we want to figure out the chance that something will happen or not happen. Just like the coin game where we have two possibilities, there are other things in life that we want to figure out the chance of happening.

It's important to know that possibility theory doesn't always give us an exact answer. Sometimes we can’t predict everything that will happen, so we have to make our best guess based on what we see and what we already know. For example, if you look outside before going to school and see dark clouds in the sky, you might guess that it’s going to rain. But sometimes things happen that we don't expect, like a sudden gust of wind that could change what was going to happen.

So, to sum it all up, possibility theory is like a game of heads or tails - it's a way to figure out the chances of something happening, but it doesn't always give us an exact answer because life can be unpredictable.