ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Representative Concentration Pathway

Ok kiddo, let’s talk about something called a representative concentration pathway! Imagine we are on a long car trip, and we have to decide which route to take. We can choose to take different roads, but each road will lead us to a different destination.

Similarly, when we are talking about climate change, scientists use something called a representative concentration pathway (RCP) to help us understand what might happen in the future if we keep pouring more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

These pathways are like different roads we can take for our future. Each pathway represents a different amount of greenhouse gas emissions that we might produce over time, depending on how much we control the use of fossil fuels and other factors that cause climate change.

There are four different RCPs (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) that scientists use to model different scenarios. The numbers stand for the amount of warming we can expect to see by the end of this century compared to pre-industrial times.

So, if we take the RCP 2.6 pathway, it means we will reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and take action against climate change, and we might only see a small amount of warming in the future. On the other hand, the RCP 8.5 pathway means we continue doing what we’re doing and release lots of greenhouse gases, causing the most amount of warming and damage to our planet.

So, scientists use these pathways to try and understand what might happen in the future based on the choices we make today. It’s important for us to make good choices and take actions to prevent climate change, so we can have a safe and healthy planet to live on.