ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Statistical correlations of criminal behavior

Imagine you have a big bowl of M&Ms. There are green ones, brown ones, blue ones, and red ones. When you eat the M&Ms, you might notice that you tend to grab more blue ones than green ones. That is a correlation between the color of the M&M you choose and your preference.

Now, let's talk about crime. When we study crime, we also look for correlations. We want to know if there is a connection between certain things and criminal behavior. Some things we might look at are age, sex, race, and income level.

For example, research has shown that young men are more likely to commit crimes than older men or women. This is a correlation. We know that just because someone is a young man doesn't mean they will commit a crime, but we can predict that they might be more likely to.

Another example is that people who live in poverty are more likely to commit crimes than those who are financially secure. This doesn't mean that all poor people are criminals or that all wealthy people are not. It just means that statistically, those who are struggling financially are more likely to be involved in criminal behavior.

It's important to remember that correlation doesn't equal causation. This means that just because two things are connected, it doesn't mean that one causes the other. For example, just because young men are more likely to commit crimes doesn't mean that being a young man makes you a criminal. There are many factors that contribute to criminal behavior, and correlations are just one way we can study and understand those factors.