Conditional probability

Conditional probability is like a way of predicting how likely something is to happen, but only if something else happens first. To make it easier to understand, let's look at an example: Imagine you have a coin. When you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance it will land on heads (heads are the side with the picture of a lion usually) and a 50% chance it will land on tails (tails are the side with an eagle usually). So, the conditional probability of flipping a coin and getting heads is 50%.

Now let's add some more information - imagine the coin has been flipped three times and it has landed on heads every time. Now when you flip the coin a fourth time, what is the conditional probability that it will land on heads?

The conditional probability is now higher - because the coin has landed on heads three times in a row, it is more likely to land on heads a fourth time. A good way to think about it is that the first three flips have “conditioned” this fourth flip to be more likely to land on heads. So the fourth flip has a higher conditional probability of landing on heads - let's say it's 75%. This means that there is a 75% chance that the coin will land on heads when you flip it the fourth time.