ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Krichevsky–Trofimov estimator

Have you ever tried to guess how many candies are in a jar? Well, sometimes it is really hard to guess the exact number. However, there is a way to make an educated guess by using a formula called the Krichevsky-Trofimov estimator.

Imagine you have a bag filled with different colored candies, and you'd like to know the probability of picking a specific color. The Krichevsky-Trofimov estimator helps you predict that probability.

First, you need to look at previous data or observations to get an idea of the probabilities of each color being picked. Then, you use that data to estimate the probability of the next candy being a specific color.

The Krichevsky-Trofimov estimator uses a combination of previous observations and a concept called Bayesian principles to make an educated guess about the probability of the next outcome. It factors in how certain you are about your previous data and adjusts accordingly, making its predictions more accurate.

In simpler terms, the Krichevsky-Trofimov estimator helps you make predictions about what colors of candies or results you might get based on what you already know or have seen before. It is like having a super-smart guess that can be more accurate than just guessing randomly.