ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Likelihoodist statistics

Okay kiddo, let's talk about likelihoodist statistics.

First, let's start with the concept of probability. This is like the chance of something happening. For example, what's the probability of flipping a coin and it landing on heads? That's 50/50, or 0.5 probability.

Now, likelihoodist statistics is a way of looking at probability that focuses on the likelihood of something happening. This means looking at the chances of something happening after it has already happened, instead of before.

Let me give you an example. Let's say you roll a dice and get a 4. The probability of getting a 4 before you roll the dice is 1/6, or 0.1667. But once you have already rolled the 4, the likelihood of you getting that exact same 4 again is 100%! That's because it has already happened.

Likelihoodist statistics takes this idea and applies it to things like predicting future events based on what has already happened. It uses data and observations to determine the likelihood of certain outcomes.

For instance, let's say a scientist is testing a new medicine. They give the medicine to a group of people and observe how many of them get better. From this data, they can determine the likelihood of the medicine working for other people who have the same illness.

Overall, likelihoodist statistics focuses on looking at the likelihood of something happening based on what has already happened, and using that information to make predictions for the future.