Logit

Alright kiddo, today we're going to talk about something called logit - It's a big word that helps us understand probability.

You know how sometimes we flip a coin and it could either land on heads or tails? The chances of it landing on heads are 50% and tails are 50%. Now, let's imagine we have a big box of coins and some of them are heavier than others. We still want to know the chances of landing on heads, but this time it won't be 50%. The heavier the coin, the more likely it is to land on heads.

That's where logit comes in - it helps us figure out the chances of something happening when we don't have an exact 50/50 chance. We use a math equation called the logistic function which takes into account how likely something is to happen, and then squishes those chances into a number between 0 and 1.

For example, if we wanted to figure out the chances of a sick person recovering from an illness based on their age, sex, and medical history, we could use logit to calculate the probability of them getting better. We gather all the information we have on the patient, and then use the logistic formula to give us a probability of recovery.

So that's logit explained like you're five - it helps us calculate how likely something is to happen when we don't have a perfect 50/50 chance.