Method of maximum likelihood
Have you ever played a guessing game where you have to guess the number of candies in a jar? That's kind of like what the method of maximum likelihood is!
Imagine you have a big bag with a bunch of different colored candies. You want to figure out the probability that you will pick a specific color when you reach into the bag. The method of maximum likelihood helps you do this.
First, you take out one candy at a time and keep track of the colors you get. Let's say you got 10 candies, and 3 of them were green. Now you want to figure out the probability of picking a green candy from the bag.
The method of maximum likelihood says that the best guess for this probability is the number of times you saw a green candy divided by the total number of candies you picked out. So in this case, your best guess for the probability of picking a green candy from the bag is 3/10.
But wait, there's more! The method of maximum likelihood also helps you figure out if there's anything special about this bag of candies. For example, maybe there are more green candies in the bag than any other color.
To figure this out, you compare the probability of getting green candies to the probability of getting any other color. Let's say you got 3 green candies, 2 red candies, 2 yellow candies, 2 blue candies, and 1 purple candy. The probability of getting a green candy is 3/10, while the probability of getting any other color is 7/10. This means that green candies are slightly more likely to come out of the bag.
By using the method of maximum likelihood, you can make educated guesses about things like the probability of picking a green candy from a bag and what makes that bag different from other bags. It's like using your candy guessing skills to become a detective!
Imagine you have a big bag with a bunch of different colored candies. You want to figure out the probability that you will pick a specific color when you reach into the bag. The method of maximum likelihood helps you do this.
First, you take out one candy at a time and keep track of the colors you get. Let's say you got 10 candies, and 3 of them were green. Now you want to figure out the probability of picking a green candy from the bag.
The method of maximum likelihood says that the best guess for this probability is the number of times you saw a green candy divided by the total number of candies you picked out. So in this case, your best guess for the probability of picking a green candy from the bag is 3/10.
But wait, there's more! The method of maximum likelihood also helps you figure out if there's anything special about this bag of candies. For example, maybe there are more green candies in the bag than any other color.
To figure this out, you compare the probability of getting green candies to the probability of getting any other color. Let's say you got 3 green candies, 2 red candies, 2 yellow candies, 2 blue candies, and 1 purple candy. The probability of getting a green candy is 3/10, while the probability of getting any other color is 7/10. This means that green candies are slightly more likely to come out of the bag.
By using the method of maximum likelihood, you can make educated guesses about things like the probability of picking a green candy from a bag and what makes that bag different from other bags. It's like using your candy guessing skills to become a detective!
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