PERT distribution
PERT stands for "Program Evaluation & Review Technique". It is a type of statistical distribution. It is kind of like a bell-shaped curve - a smooth, symmetrical curve that peaks in the middle and curves down on either side. When you look at a PERT distribution, you can tell what values are most likely to happen, and which ones are least likely. For example, if you have a PERT distribution that looks like this, you would expect that the most likely value is 10, and the least likely value is 15:
|5 | 10 | 15|
What makes PERT useful is that it can show you a range of expected values. Instead of just indicating one value as the most likely (like you would with a bell-shaped curve) you can also see how likely other values are. For example, if you have a PERT distribution of:
|2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 15 |
You can see that 5 and 10 are the most likely values, and 2 and 15 are the least likely. PERT is often used to help figure out the expected completion time for projects, or to estimate the probability of success for certain activities.
|5 | 10 | 15|
What makes PERT useful is that it can show you a range of expected values. Instead of just indicating one value as the most likely (like you would with a bell-shaped curve) you can also see how likely other values are. For example, if you have a PERT distribution of:
|2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 15 |
You can see that 5 and 10 are the most likely values, and 2 and 15 are the least likely. PERT is often used to help figure out the expected completion time for projects, or to estimate the probability of success for certain activities.