ROC curve

A ROC curve is a way of showing how good something is at predicting something else. Imagine you have a friend who is really good at guessing if it will rain tomorrow. Sometimes they are right and sometimes they are wrong. If they always guessed it will rain tomorrow, they would be right sometimes and wrong sometimes.

A ROC curve helps you figure out how good your friend is at guessing whether it will rain or not. It shows you how many times they were right and how many times they were wrong. The curve helps you see the trade off between making more correct guesses but also making more incorrect guesses.

If your friend does a really good job predicting rain, then the curve will be high up and to the left. If they are not as good at it, then the curve will be close to straight and diagonal. By looking at the curve, you can tell how good your friend is at predicting rain and make decisions based on that.