ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Regression (film)

Regression is like trying to figure out how much chocolate chips should go into a batch of cookies.

Let's say you want to make some delicious cookies with chocolate chips. But you don't know how much chocolate chips to use. You could just guess and hope for the best, but that's not a smart way to make cookies that everyone will enjoy.

So, what you do is you start with a recipe for cookies and follow it as perfectly as you can. Then you use a special tool called a scale to measure exactly how much chocolate chips you put in the batter.

Now, you bake the cookies and let your friends taste them. They tell you if they love the cookies, or if they think something could be improved.

Regression is kind of like this baking experiment, except instead of cookies, we're trying to figure out relationships between things.

Let's say we want to know if how much a person exercises is related to how healthy they are. We would collect information from lots of people about how many hours of exercise they do each week and how healthy they are overall.

Once we have this information, we can use a special tool called a regression model to help us figure out how much exercise is related to overall health. It's kind of like following a recipe for cookies, but instead of using a scale to measure out chocolate chips, we're using mathematical equations to help us figure out how much a person's health might be impacted by exercise.

So, just like we could ask our friends how they liked the cookies, we can use the regression model to make some predictions about how healthy someone might be if they exercise a certain amount.

The important thing to remember is that regression helps us figure out relationships between things, but it's just a tool. We still need to use our own critical thinking and common sense when interpreting the results. Just like we wouldn't blindly follow a cookie recipe without checking if the cookies actually taste good, we can't blindly trust a regression model without thinking carefully about what it's telling us.