ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Shifted Gompertz distribution

Okay, kiddo, let's talk about the shifted Gompertz distribution. This is a mathematical formula that can be used to describe things like how many people are born each year, how long they live, or how many cars are sold in a particular city.

Now, the Gompertz distribution itself is a type of mathematical formula that can be used to describe how likely it is that something will happen at a certain point in time. For example, let's say we want to know how likely it is that a person will live to be 100 years old. The Gompertz distribution helps us model this by looking at things like the person's age, their health, and other factors that might affect their lifespan.

But what about the "shifted" part of the shifted Gompertz distribution? Well, this just means that we've moved the whole formula to the left or right. Imagine you have a number line, like the one you use in school for addition and subtraction. The regular Gompertz distribution would be centered right in the middle of the line, like the number 0. But if we shift it to the right, it would start at a different number on the line, like 10 or 20. This can help us describe things that happen later in time or to older people.

So to sum it up, the shifted Gompertz distribution is a fancy math formula that helps us describe how likely it is that something will happen at a certain point in time, but with the added feature of being able to shift the model to describe events that happen later in life or at a later time.