ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Statistical conclusion validity

Statistical conclusion validity is like playing a guessing game. Imagine playing with your friends and trying to guess how many candies are in a jar. If you guessed correctly, then the conclusion of the game is valid. In statistics, we use the same concept when we make conclusions about a group of people or a situation based on a sample group.

Let's say we wanted to find out if all 5-year-olds like to eat ice cream. We would have to ask a few 5-year-olds their opinion. So, we select 10 kids from a nearby park and ask them if they like ice cream. Out of the 10 kids, 8 of them say "yes." Based on this information, we might jump to the conclusion that all 5-year-olds like to eat ice cream.

However, we have to make sure that the conclusion we draw is valid. Statistical conclusion validity is when we use different methods to make sure our results are accurate. One way to do this is to use a larger sample group because the more people we ask, the more likely our results represent the whole population.

Another way to check statistical conclusion validity is by testing the reliability of our methods. In our ice cream example, we could ask the same 10 kids again a few months later if they still like ice cream. If they all say "yes" again, then we can infer that our initial results were reliable.

So, statistical conclusion validity is like a double-checking system in statistics to make sure our conclusions are valid based on the data we gather. It's kind of like checking your work before you turn in your homework to make sure you got the right answer.