ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Unit root

Have you ever seen a plant grow from a seed, and noticed that it keeps growing taller and taller? Just like a plant, sometimes a set of numbers can grow and grow forever! But what if we want to check whether those numbers are growing by a steady amount, or if they are just randomly jumping around? That's where the concept of "unit root" comes in.

A unit root is like a special quality that some numbers have. It makes them behave a bit like a plant that keeps growing and growing, without getting any smaller. Sometimes we want to know whether a set of numbers has a unit root or not, because it can help us understand how they are changing over time.

Imagine you have a sequence of numbers like this: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. This sequence is pretty simple, and we can see that each number is just one bigger than the one before it. But what if we have a sequence like this: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11...? This set of numbers is growing too, but it's not growing by a fixed amount each time. Instead, it's growing by two each time (because each number is two more than the number before it).

Now imagine that we have a really long sequence of numbers that is growing over time, and we're not sure whether it has a unit root or not. If it does have a unit root, that means that it will keep growing and never stop. If it doesn't have a unit root, that means it will eventually stop growing and reach a stable level.

To figure out whether a sequence has a unit root or not, we can use a special tool called a statistical test. This test checks whether the sequence of numbers is "stationary" or not. That means that it's not growing or changing over time in a consistent way. If the sequence is stationary, then it doesn't have a unit root. But if it's not stationary, then there's a good chance that it does have a unit root!

So, to sum it up: a unit root is a special quality that some sequences of numbers can have, which makes them keep growing forever. To check whether a sequence has a unit root or not, we can use a statistical test to see whether it's stationary or not.