ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

1980 October Surprise theory

Imagine you are playing a game with your friend. You are winning and you know you are going to win the game. But suddenly, your friend does something unexpected and wins the game instead. You might think, "Wait, how did my friend win? Did they cheat or trick me?"

Well, something similar happened in the year 1980 during a very important event called the presidential election in the United States. There were two main people who were running to become the president: Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter.

Now, close your eyes and imagine two friends, Ronald and Jimmy, who are competing against each other to become the boss of their school. They both want to win because being the boss means they get to make important decisions and have lots of power.

The election was in November, but something strange happened in October. Some people believe that there was a secret plan, a surprise, which happened just before the election. This plan is called the "October Surprise."

Both Ronald and Jimmy wanted to be the president very badly. They wanted to do whatever it took to win. Some people think that Ronald's friends made a secret deal with another country called Iran.

In the game we were talking about earlier, this would be like Ronald secretly asking another friend for help to win the game. They might make a plan that if Ronald wins, he will do something nice for the other friend in return, like give them a special toy.

So, in the real world, some people believe that Ronald's friends made a plan with Iran. The plan was that if Ronald won the election, he would do something nice for Iran in return. This something nice was that he promised to sell weapons to Iran, even though it was against the rules.

But why would Ronald and his friends do this? Well, there was a big problem going on at that time. There were some Americans who were being held as prisoners in Iran. Ronald and his friends thought that if they made this secret plan with Iran, they could get those prisoners released before the election. This would make Ronald look like a hero and help him win the election.

It's like if Ronald found a way to get your favorite toy back from someone who took it. You might feel really happy and impressed with Ronald, and you would want him to be the boss of your school.

So, this secret plan with Iran was like Ronald's way of trying to be a hero and win the election. But here comes the twist! The plan was so secret that not everyone knew about it. Even Jimmy, Ronald's competitor, didn't know what was going on.

Just imagine, Jimmy is trying really hard to be the boss of the school, but all of a sudden, Ronald does something unexpected and makes a deal with Iran. Jimmy might think, "Wait, that's not fair! Ronald cheated! He made a secret plan to win the election!"

And this is what some people believe really happened in 1980. They think that Ronald's secret plan with Iran was the reason why he won the election. It was like his "October Surprise" trick that helped him become the president.

But you know what? Sometimes things aren't as they seem. Even though some people believe this theory, others say it's not true. They say there isn't enough evidence to prove that Ronald's secret plan actually happened, and they think it's just a story.

So, the mystery of the "October Surprise" continues. Some people still wonder if Ronald's secret plan with Iran really happened or if it was just a fun idea that people made up. But no matter what, it reminds us that in games and in real life, surprises can happen, and sometimes, they can change everything.