Autoregressive integrated moving average

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is like making lemonade.

The "auto" part means we use the past to predict the future. Just like how when we make lemonade, we squeeze lemons to get the juice which we use to make our lemonade. We use past lemon juice to make present lemonade.

The "integrated" part means we take the difference between the data points. This is like having a lot of lemons and squeezing them all at once but we only need a certain amount of juice so we measure the difference between the total amount of juice that we got and the amount we need. In data terms, this means we take the difference between one data point and another to create a new set of data points.

The "moving average" part means we take an average of a certain number of data points. This is like putting sugar into our lemonade to make it sweeter. We add just enough sugar to make our lemonade taste good. For ARIMA, we want to make sure we're getting enough information to make accurate predictions in the future, so we'll take the average of the past data points to predict the next one.

So ARIMA is really just a way to make predictions about the future using information from the past. Just like how we make lemonade by using past lemons to make present lemonade that will help quench our thirst in the future!