The overconfidence effect is when people are overly confident in the accuracy of their own beliefs and decisions. It’s like when you think you know something is true, but you’re not really sure. It can lead people to make bad decisions because they are too sure of themselves and don't think they need to double-check or get more information. It can also cause people to overestimate their own abilities, leading them to try things they may not be good at or capable of doing.