ELI5: Explain Like I'm 5

Polynomial chaos

Okay kiddo, let's talk about something called "polynomial chaos." It's a fancy math thing that helps people understand complicated stuff like weather patterns or how machines work.

You know how when you roll a ball down a hill, it moves faster and faster until it reaches the bottom? Well, imagine if you wanted to figure out exactly how fast the ball would be moving at any point as it rolls down. The problem is, there are a lot of things that could affect its speed - how steep the hill is, how big the ball is, how bumpy the hill is, and so on.

This is where polynomial chaos comes in. It helps us figure out how all those different things affect the ball's speed. We start by using some fancy math to create a bunch of equations that describe all the different factors that could affect the ball's speed. These equations use something called "polynomials," which are just a kind of math thing that helps you do multiplication and division really easily.

Once we have all these equations, we can put them together to create a big equation that tells us exactly how fast the ball will be moving at any point as it rolls down the hill. We call this equation a "polynomial chaos expansion."

So why is this useful? Well, imagine if instead of a ball rolling down a hill, we were trying to figure out how a machine works. There might be a lot of different factors that could affect how the machine works, like how fast it's running or what temperature it's at. By using polynomial chaos, we can create a big equation that describes how all these different factors work together to make the machine run.

Overall, polynomial chaos is a really helpful tool for understanding complicated things that have a lot of different factors affecting them. It helps us create equations that describe how everything works together, which can be really useful for making predictions or improving things like machines or weather models.